Commentary ...
Renewing the Dream
For those who come behind us
By Jim Nelson Black
In 1861, shortly before his death, Thomas Babbington Macaulay commented in a letter to a friend in America, “Your republic will be fearfully plundered and laid waste by barbarians in the twentieth century as the Roman empire was in the fifth, with this difference: that the Huns and Vandals will have been engendered within your own country, by your own institutions.”
Today, a century and a half after that austere remark, we may wonder what crystal ball the distinguished gentleman was using. As we witness symptoms of upheaval in the economy and a weakening of social and moral order in our major cities, the words of the celebrated historian give us pause. Very much like the French statesman, Alexis de Tocqueville, who visited America in the 1830s, Macaulay was an ardent admirer of this country, but he nevertheless distrusted the spirit of egalitarianism and liberalism he witnessed in elite circles in America. At a time of great social turmoil and philosophical division, he offered this nation a sober warning that liberty itself might one day become the source of our own self destruction. Today, 150 years after that fateful observation, his words are still a bit too perceptive for comfort.
The most remarkable feature of our American-style democracy over the past two centuries has been our tradition of freedom, self-reliance, and independence. What made America unique among modern nations was the fact that men and women on these shores had the right to succeed or to fail on their own, without the complicity of government. Charity and public assistance traditionally came from the churches and private charitable organizations. For most of our history, the aim of benevolence was not to foster dependency but to provide a fresh start for the poor. We believed, the goal of a democratic society was to keep men and women honest and productive.
But that’s not what big government has done for the “disadvantaged” in our own time. Today’s explosion of federal programs has robbed people of all classes of initiative and self-respect. Government paternalism has bound millions in what amounts to self-imposed slavery. Well-meaning but flawed social programs have patronized the poor and weak, making it easy for them to drop out. It has removed large numbers of able-bodied men and women from the workforce, and rewarded bad habits that fracture families and divide communities. Such programs have contributed in no small way to the loss of self-respect, loss of ambition, and the kind of “idle hands” the old maxim tells us are “the devil’s workshop.”
Evidence of Decline
Dramatic evidence of social and moral disorder can be found in the Index of Leading Cultural Indicators, first published in the mid-1990s by former Education Secretary William J. Bennett. Since the mid-60s, Bennett reported, the population of the United States has increased 41 percent and GDP nearly tripled. At the same time, social spending rose from 142 billion to 787 billion—a five-fold increase. But during the same period, amidst all the euphoria of the Great Society generation, there was a 600 percent increase in violent crime and a 400 percent increase in illegitimate births.
Despite massive levels of public assistance and unprecedented welfare spending, the nation witnessed a quadrupling of the divorce rate, a tripling of the number of children in single-parent homes, a 300 percent increase in teen suicides, along with a drop of some 80 points in the average SAT scores of America’s high school seniors. Most perplexing, the United States is now number one in abortions, divorces, and births to unwed mothers among all industrialized nations. America leads the industrialized world in murder, rape, and violent crime. Yet, in elementary and secondary education, our kids score at or near the bottom.
As the distinguished author and social critic Russell Kirk pointed out in The Roots of American Order twenty-five years ago, when law and order fail to restrain the barbarians who have grown up in our midst, violence soon becomes the new normal.
Today, a century and a half after that austere remark, we may wonder what crystal ball the distinguished gentleman was using. As we witness symptoms of upheaval in the economy and a weakening of social and moral order in our major cities, the words of the celebrated historian give us pause. Very much like the French statesman, Alexis de Tocqueville, who visited America in the 1830s, Macaulay was an ardent admirer of this country, but he nevertheless distrusted the spirit of egalitarianism and liberalism he witnessed in elite circles in America. At a time of great social turmoil and philosophical division, he offered this nation a sober warning that liberty itself might one day become the source of our own self destruction. Today, 150 years after that fateful observation, his words are still a bit too perceptive for comfort.
The most remarkable feature of our American-style democracy over the past two centuries has been our tradition of freedom, self-reliance, and independence. What made America unique among modern nations was the fact that men and women on these shores had the right to succeed or to fail on their own, without the complicity of government. Charity and public assistance traditionally came from the churches and private charitable organizations. For most of our history, the aim of benevolence was not to foster dependency but to provide a fresh start for the poor. We believed, the goal of a democratic society was to keep men and women honest and productive.
But that’s not what big government has done for the “disadvantaged” in our own time. Today’s explosion of federal programs has robbed people of all classes of initiative and self-respect. Government paternalism has bound millions in what amounts to self-imposed slavery. Well-meaning but flawed social programs have patronized the poor and weak, making it easy for them to drop out. It has removed large numbers of able-bodied men and women from the workforce, and rewarded bad habits that fracture families and divide communities. Such programs have contributed in no small way to the loss of self-respect, loss of ambition, and the kind of “idle hands” the old maxim tells us are “the devil’s workshop.”
Evidence of Decline
Dramatic evidence of social and moral disorder can be found in the Index of Leading Cultural Indicators, first published in the mid-1990s by former Education Secretary William J. Bennett. Since the mid-60s, Bennett reported, the population of the United States has increased 41 percent and GDP nearly tripled. At the same time, social spending rose from 142 billion to 787 billion—a five-fold increase. But during the same period, amidst all the euphoria of the Great Society generation, there was a 600 percent increase in violent crime and a 400 percent increase in illegitimate births.
Despite massive levels of public assistance and unprecedented welfare spending, the nation witnessed a quadrupling of the divorce rate, a tripling of the number of children in single-parent homes, a 300 percent increase in teen suicides, along with a drop of some 80 points in the average SAT scores of America’s high school seniors. Most perplexing, the United States is now number one in abortions, divorces, and births to unwed mothers among all industrialized nations. America leads the industrialized world in murder, rape, and violent crime. Yet, in elementary and secondary education, our kids score at or near the bottom.
As the distinguished author and social critic Russell Kirk pointed out in The Roots of American Order twenty-five years ago, when law and order fail to restrain the barbarians who have grown up in our midst, violence soon becomes the new normal.
Today’s street gangs are simply the modern equivalents of the outlaw syndicates of ancient Rome, the Greens and Blues. In both cases, disaffected youths become predators with no sense of connectedness to the dominant culture. Rather than seeking ways to contribute constructively, they become instead social outcasts who prey upon the weakest and most vulnerable members of society.
What such pathologies reveal is that the spiritual and intellectual vitality of the nation has been degraded, and the soul of the nation is in jeopardy. Violence and rage flame out of control in the very places where government social programs are most common, threatening in due course not only social order and public decency but the survival of the nation.
Celebrating Shared Values
But some will ask, “Can’t we do something to stop these negative trends?” I believe the answer is yes, we can, if we ackowledge our predicament and take steps to change directions now. Thanks to the Tea Party movement and other emerging social and political trends, we are already seeing signs of resistance to the dramatic expansion of big government. Many people who have never before been so politically engaged suddenly perceive that the real work of restoring the American Dream will come, not from Washington, but from ”we the people.” In communities all over America, men and women are talking to each other, and taking advantage of the tools of modern technology to reach out to their neighbors, and this is a hopeful sign.
We have not yet reached the point of collapse that Macaulay predicted, and there is at least a hope that things can change if enough Americans care enough to get involved. But we ought to understand that time is not on our side. Every opinion counts, every vote counts, and genuine commitment is essential. Every one of the problems confronting this nation can be solved through concerned citizen action. Lawlessness, economic insolvency, and government interference in people’s lives can be stopped. Sound political action which arises from “sound moral judgment” and individual initiative can help turn back the tide and restore order in all these areas. But we must each make a personal commitment to get involved.
Parents need to get involved in their children’s education. They need to put a stop to the radical departure from traditional learning being tested on their children in the public schools. A return to our cultural and religious roots, to traditional values, and the customs and beliefs that served us so well in better days can help renew our cultural heritage. And we must also confront our addiction to consumerism and other forms of materialism in order to recover the richness and joy of personal relationships. From these foundations come the most important values and the most enduring rewards.
Much good remains in American society, but things won’t get better on their own. American educator Robert M. Hutchins once observed that effective communication takes more than telephones, computers, or mass media. What makes communication possible, he said, is “common understanding, a common tradition, common ideas, and common ideals.” This is still an important lesson today. It is not our differences that make communication possible, but our willingness to concentrate on the ways in which we are alike — that is, to celebrate our shared values.
If we want to avoid the fate Thomas Macaulay predicted, it will be important to recognize that renewal will only happen when we come together in the unity of our common hopes and dreams. If we decide now to renew our commitment to the virtues that made this nation great in the first place — values that have served the nation so well and sustained us ever since the founding era — then we have the hope not only of surviving but of thriving for years, and perhaps centuries, to come. Renewing the American Dream for the sake of all those who will come behind us: this is the best, and the only reasonable hope, of so great a nation.
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What such pathologies reveal is that the spiritual and intellectual vitality of the nation has been degraded, and the soul of the nation is in jeopardy. Violence and rage flame out of control in the very places where government social programs are most common, threatening in due course not only social order and public decency but the survival of the nation.
Celebrating Shared Values
But some will ask, “Can’t we do something to stop these negative trends?” I believe the answer is yes, we can, if we ackowledge our predicament and take steps to change directions now. Thanks to the Tea Party movement and other emerging social and political trends, we are already seeing signs of resistance to the dramatic expansion of big government. Many people who have never before been so politically engaged suddenly perceive that the real work of restoring the American Dream will come, not from Washington, but from ”we the people.” In communities all over America, men and women are talking to each other, and taking advantage of the tools of modern technology to reach out to their neighbors, and this is a hopeful sign.
We have not yet reached the point of collapse that Macaulay predicted, and there is at least a hope that things can change if enough Americans care enough to get involved. But we ought to understand that time is not on our side. Every opinion counts, every vote counts, and genuine commitment is essential. Every one of the problems confronting this nation can be solved through concerned citizen action. Lawlessness, economic insolvency, and government interference in people’s lives can be stopped. Sound political action which arises from “sound moral judgment” and individual initiative can help turn back the tide and restore order in all these areas. But we must each make a personal commitment to get involved.
Parents need to get involved in their children’s education. They need to put a stop to the radical departure from traditional learning being tested on their children in the public schools. A return to our cultural and religious roots, to traditional values, and the customs and beliefs that served us so well in better days can help renew our cultural heritage. And we must also confront our addiction to consumerism and other forms of materialism in order to recover the richness and joy of personal relationships. From these foundations come the most important values and the most enduring rewards.
Much good remains in American society, but things won’t get better on their own. American educator Robert M. Hutchins once observed that effective communication takes more than telephones, computers, or mass media. What makes communication possible, he said, is “common understanding, a common tradition, common ideas, and common ideals.” This is still an important lesson today. It is not our differences that make communication possible, but our willingness to concentrate on the ways in which we are alike — that is, to celebrate our shared values.
If we want to avoid the fate Thomas Macaulay predicted, it will be important to recognize that renewal will only happen when we come together in the unity of our common hopes and dreams. If we decide now to renew our commitment to the virtues that made this nation great in the first place — values that have served the nation so well and sustained us ever since the founding era — then we have the hope not only of surviving but of thriving for years, and perhaps centuries, to come. Renewing the American Dream for the sake of all those who will come behind us: this is the best, and the only reasonable hope, of so great a nation.
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A View of the Future Through the Ten Forces Lens
By Jim Underwood
Executive Summary:
In complex dynamic systems, events are increasingly unpredictable as complexity and rates of change increase. Change forces are those occurring in markets and technology, while complexity forces include economics, government, legal, media, climate, moral, psychological/social, and ideological forces. Among the author’s predictions based on his 10-forces model: The U.S. government will work to eliminate dependence on foreign oil; families will become stronger as a countertrend to the effects of technologies that reduce person-to-person contact; and random violence will increase.
Discussion:
There are a lot of things about the future that ought to get us excited. In the next 10-15 years, we can expect to see a stunning array of medical breakthroughs. As the average person is now expected to live nearly 80 years, we shouldn’t be surprised to see a healthy and productive life-expectancy approach 90 years in the next decade or two.
Although fuel cells are still not suitable for widespread use, I believe that the next 10-15 years will see that change. Also on the energy front, the new LED lighting should change the landscape when it comes to residential and commercial usage. I am excited about such things as the 3G Telecommunication networks, and the future convergence of the DSP’s (Digital Signal Processors), and soft-switching. And we can only imagine what the Internet may become.
But in considering the world of futuristic thinking, most of the recent research reveals tells us we will need to enhance not just technology but our existing mental models as well. Futurists have long understood the importance of including “Complexity Theory” as a metaphor, as a basis for future modeling. At the same time, some have tried to force Darwinian evolution theory into the model as well, applied to complex adaptive systems, I think inappropriately. With increasing evidence refuting the Darwinian hypothesis, it would seem to me to be unwise to make such an assumption.
Additionally, there is a growing body of research that asserts that environmental complexity involves varying rates of change. Thus, any future modeling must account for both complexity and rate of change.
In doing the research for my 2001 book Thriving In E-Chaos, I developed what I call the “Ten Forces Model” of Change and Complexity, for the purpose of explaining the interrelationships of these two factors. The graphic representation below is a rough idea of the ten forces are related to each other, and how they interact.
In complex dynamic systems, events are increasingly unpredictable as complexity and rates of change increase. Change forces are those occurring in markets and technology, while complexity forces include economics, government, legal, media, climate, moral, psychological/social, and ideological forces. Among the author’s predictions based on his 10-forces model: The U.S. government will work to eliminate dependence on foreign oil; families will become stronger as a countertrend to the effects of technologies that reduce person-to-person contact; and random violence will increase.
Discussion:
There are a lot of things about the future that ought to get us excited. In the next 10-15 years, we can expect to see a stunning array of medical breakthroughs. As the average person is now expected to live nearly 80 years, we shouldn’t be surprised to see a healthy and productive life-expectancy approach 90 years in the next decade or two.
Although fuel cells are still not suitable for widespread use, I believe that the next 10-15 years will see that change. Also on the energy front, the new LED lighting should change the landscape when it comes to residential and commercial usage. I am excited about such things as the 3G Telecommunication networks, and the future convergence of the DSP’s (Digital Signal Processors), and soft-switching. And we can only imagine what the Internet may become.
But in considering the world of futuristic thinking, most of the recent research reveals tells us we will need to enhance not just technology but our existing mental models as well. Futurists have long understood the importance of including “Complexity Theory” as a metaphor, as a basis for future modeling. At the same time, some have tried to force Darwinian evolution theory into the model as well, applied to complex adaptive systems, I think inappropriately. With increasing evidence refuting the Darwinian hypothesis, it would seem to me to be unwise to make such an assumption.
Additionally, there is a growing body of research that asserts that environmental complexity involves varying rates of change. Thus, any future modeling must account for both complexity and rate of change.
In doing the research for my 2001 book Thriving In E-Chaos, I developed what I call the “Ten Forces Model” of Change and Complexity, for the purpose of explaining the interrelationships of these two factors. The graphic representation below is a rough idea of the ten forces are related to each other, and how they interact.
The Ten Forces Model shows the eight forces that primarily drive Complexity and the two forces that are the primary drivers of Rate of Change. It’s important to remember that each set of forces, those that drive Complexity and those that drive Rate of Change, are also strongly linked systems. I developed the concept of “complex dynamic systems” to recognize this new reality. Simply put, the Ten Forces Model and its resulting “Complex Dynamic Systems” approach, reveal that complexity and dynamism drive the environment.
For example, technology forces clearly drive environmental rate of change. Consider just one interaction between the two areas. Opinion polls reveal that a major percentage of the U.S. population no longer trust the mainstream media. Ethics problem in the media is a topic for another time and place, but most of us realize that the media no longer enjoys the same level of trust they had twenty years ago.
The speed of diffusion of information as well as the availability of new and faster forms of information over the past two decades has created an entirely new family of Web-based media resources, and the types and formats for information delivery are increasing daily. Additionally, as the demand for more unbiased information grows, the major media outlets are finding that they’re losing viewers and readers at an alarming pace.
While a complex dynamic systems metaphor may add challenges to the task of preparing for what’s to come in the next decade or two, it can provide additional clarity and accuracy for futures modeling. Based on that belief, and applying a complex dynamic systems metaphor to a fifteen-year future, here are some of the things we might expect to see.
For example, technology forces clearly drive environmental rate of change. Consider just one interaction between the two areas. Opinion polls reveal that a major percentage of the U.S. population no longer trust the mainstream media. Ethics problem in the media is a topic for another time and place, but most of us realize that the media no longer enjoys the same level of trust they had twenty years ago.
The speed of diffusion of information as well as the availability of new and faster forms of information over the past two decades has created an entirely new family of Web-based media resources, and the types and formats for information delivery are increasing daily. Additionally, as the demand for more unbiased information grows, the major media outlets are finding that they’re losing viewers and readers at an alarming pace.
While a complex dynamic systems metaphor may add challenges to the task of preparing for what’s to come in the next decade or two, it can provide additional clarity and accuracy for futures modeling. Based on that belief, and applying a complex dynamic systems metaphor to a fifteen-year future, here are some of the things we might expect to see.
- Expect boardroom and executive level clashes between those in their late seventies and eighties who want to keep their executive level jobs, and those in their thirties who want to get their jobs. The acceleration of health related discoveries and knowledge about fitness as well as health will mean that people will want to work much longer before retiring. Also, the current generation of fiftyish executives will be technology-savvy, knowledge driven individuals fifteen years from now.
- FIDs (fully integrated devices) will change our lives, earlier rather than later. The convergence of telephony, PDAs, computing, wireless communication (including cell phones), digital-signal processing (the ability to convert voice and text to data), soft switching (the ability to forward digital messages from fax, office and home voicemail, etc.) and the internet is going to converge into new, integrated devices. Do not be surprised if the cell phone remains as a stand-alone device, and all other functions are contained in a portable, companion device.
- The implications of the increasing number of homes without fathers present are alarming. The overwhelming statistics that relate children raised in homes without fathers present and felony crime are unavoidable. As this trend grows, expect explosive growth in the number of “walled neighborhoods.” Also expect a dramatic decrease in the number of people who will seek careers in law enforcement due to the significant number of injuries and fatalities that law enforcement professionals will endure due to increased societal violence. The US Congress will not deal with the problems, but will continue “programs” that fail to address the real needs of those who are both victims and perpetrators in the downward cycle of the family.
- Expect an earth-shaking plan out of Washington, D.C. for the elimination of all dependence on offshore energy sources over a ten-year period. The various constituencies will find unity in the commercialization of non-carbon-based fuel sources and clean energy sources. There are substantial political implications that accompany this agenda.
- Expect a revolution in the area of philosophy, and a decline of the liberal predisposition in academic circles. The public failures of relativism and pluralism (the predominate philosophical approaches of mainstream academia) will be replaced by a new fascination with rationalism and absolutism. This may carry over to the rejection of teaching of Darwinism in the fields of biology, management, and other areas where it is currently taught. The Enron, WorldCom, and other ethical scandals may bring new light into all thinking related to ethics and philosophy. This may also lead to shifts in religious participation, especially from those founded on relativism and existentialism toward those founded in rationalism.
- Expect a new emphasis on relationships. As families fragment in many areas, and technology diminishes person-to-person contact, expect many to again seek the stability and comfort of family and friendships. In some cases, this may lead to an increase in youth gang activities. In others, it will result in the creation of a new, family-oriented culture.
- Random violence will increase. The continued threat of ideological extremists is a reality. Family violence and workplace violence will also increase as the number of dysfunctional families’ increases. Expect workplace security issues to become an important issue over the next 15 years.
Dynamism and the Next 15 Years
For most of the last decade he U.S. has been engaged in a complex and often confusing “war on terror” around the world. While some believe that ending the war and bringing our soldiers home will enhance our long term objectives and simplify our lives, the extremist beliefs and the weapons employed by our adversaries in this global drama are cause for concern. Yet, for whatever reasons, political and personal opinion on both sides of the debate seem to prohibit reasonable people from coming together on this issue, so the contest of wills continues.
But I would suggest, nevertheless, that the challenge of dynamism and the acceleration of change is the real wild card in this debate. That’s why many of the 15-year trends may begin to emerge within a 5-year window. There is also another reality we need to keep in mind when it comes to such scenarios. Complexity and dynamism, by definition, infer uncertainty.
While the current global reality is a reflection of moral and philosophical attitudes, that can quickly and radically change, depending on what happens on the ground. The complex system we call “the world” has order. As I often tell my business clients, companies that fail to match their operational environment to the macro environment soon cease to exist. And ideas that do not reflect the realities of the world we actually live in, will ultimately fail and cease to exist, as well.
In spite of the new wave of ideological extremism, reflected very well in the current political environment, there are still men and women in this country, as well as in other societies, who are striving for order, justice, and peace. And that’s a good thing.
There will always be groups of rational, principled people who are committed to making this world a better place, despite the chaos
of that often seems to define this global malaise. With that said, wisdom leads us to expect the uncertain and to work for the
best of all mankind.
* * *
This paper was originally presented as an address to members of the World Futures Forum.
A version of that presentation is available at: http://www.wfs.org/underwood.htm
A version of that presentation is available at: http://www.wfs.org/underwood.htm